Bias Quick Reference
Core Concepts
| Concept | Definition |
|---|---|
| System 1 | Fast, automatic, intuitive thinking |
| System 2 | Slow, deliberate, analytical thinking |
| Heuristic | Mental shortcut that usually works but can mislead |
| Bias | Systematic pattern of deviation from rationality |
| Nudge | Choice architecture that influences behavior without restricting options |
Major Biases
Loss Aversion
What: Losses hurt ~2x more than equivalent gains feel good.
Effect: Risk aversion for gains, risk seeking for losses, status quo bias.
Counter: Focus on final states, not gains/losses. Ask "Would I choose this if starting fresh?"
Anchoring
What: First numbers disproportionately influence subsequent judgments.
Effect: Negotiations, price perceptions, estimates skewed by initial values.
Counter: Generate your own anchor first. Consider multiple reference points.
Availability Heuristic
What: We judge probability by how easily examples come to mind.
Effect: Overweighting vivid, recent, emotional events. Underweighting common but unremarkable events.
Counter: Ask for base rates. Consider what's not being reported.
Confirmation Bias
What: We seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms existing beliefs.
Effect: Self-reinforcing beliefs, resistance to updating.
Counter: Actively seek disconfirming evidence. Ask "What would prove me wrong?"
Affect Heuristic
What: Feelings about something influence judgments of its risks and benefits.
Effect: Liking → low risk, high benefit perception. Disliking → opposite.
Counter: Separate analysis of risk from analysis of benefit. Note emotional reactions.
Overconfidence
What: Confidence exceeds accuracy. We overestimate abilities and certainty.
Effect: Planning fallacy, poor predictions, excessive risk-taking.
Counter: Use base rates. Widen confidence intervals. Track prediction accuracy.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
What: We continue investing because of past investment, ignoring future prospects.
Effect: Throwing good money after bad, staying in failing situations.
Counter: Ask "If starting fresh, would I choose this?" Focus only on future costs/benefits.
Present Bias
What: We overweight immediate rewards relative to future rewards.
Effect: Procrastination, under-saving, unhealthy choices.
Counter: Commitment devices, automation, making future vivid.
Social Proof
What: We look to others' behavior to determine correct behavior.
Effect: Following crowds, herding, conformity.
Counter: Form views before seeing others'. Evaluate evidence directly.
Framing Effect
What: Same choice feels different depending on how it's presented.
Effect: Gain vs. loss framing changes risk preferences.
Counter: Deliberately reframe. Focus on final outcomes, not presentation.
Status Quo Bias
What: Preference for current state over change, even when change is beneficial.
Effect: Inertia, acceptance of suboptimal defaults.
Counter: Ask "Would I actively choose this if it weren't the default?"
Hindsight Bias
What: After events, we believe we predicted them better than we did.
Effect: Overconfidence in prediction ability, failure to learn from errors.
Counter: Record predictions before outcomes. Review honestly.
Fundamental Attribution Error
What: Attributing others' behavior to character while attributing our own to situation.
Effect: Misjudging others, relationship conflict.
Counter: Consider situational explanations for others' behavior.
Planning Fallacy
What: Underestimating time, cost, and risk of planned actions.
Effect: Projects over budget and behind schedule.
Counter: Use reference class forecasting. Add buffer time. Pre-mortem.
Projection Bias
What: Projecting current state onto predictions of future states.
Effect: Shopping hungry, planning when not tempted, assuming feelings continue.
Counter: Anticipate future states will differ. Make decisions in cool states.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
What: Least competent are most overconfident; experts are better calibrated.
Effect: Beginners overestimate abilities; expertise increases epistemic humility.
Counter: Seek feedback. Track actual performance vs. expectations.
Quick Checklist for Important Decisions
- Am I in a System 1 or System 2 mode?
- What's anchoring my thinking?
- Am I seeking confirming or disconfirming evidence?
- Is loss aversion making me too cautious or too reckless?
- What's the base rate for situations like this?
- Am I overconfident? What would prove me wrong?
- Am I weighting sunk costs?
- Is present bias affecting my view of future consequences?
- What social influences might be shaping my thinking?
- How is this being framed? What would the opposite frame look like?
- Would I actively choose this, or am I accepting a default?
- What would I advise a friend in this situation?
Key AI Prompts
General Bias Check
"Check this decision for cognitive biases: [describe decision and reasoning]"
Devil's Advocate
"Argue against my position: [your position]"
Reframing
"Present this same decision from multiple frames: [decision]"
Pre-Mortem
"Imagine this failed. What went wrong? [project/decision]"
Calibration
"Help me calibrate my confidence in: [belief + confidence level]"